CRISIS TRACKER

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Dashboard 03/31/2020

 

MONTAG has endeavored to gather resources that may be of value in understanding fast-moving world events.  We don’t have all the answers, but we believe we have identified some organizations that are intelligent and have up-to-date information.  Consider the following links:

(Source:  Johns Hopkins via Financial  Times)

CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 TIMELINE

DECEMBER, 2019

  • 12/31/19 – Wuhan China reports first Corona virus cases

JANUARY, 2020

  • 01/11/20 – 1st known death 61 year old man in Wuhan
  • 01/20/20 – first confirmed cases outside of China confirmed in Japan, S. Korea and Thailand by the WHO
  • 01/21/20 – first confirmed case in the U.S. in Washington State
  • 01/23/20 – Wuhan city with 11 million people was cut off by Chinese authorities. 17 had died and 570 infected
  • 01/24/20 – Shanghai Disneyland shut down.  Great Wall of China closed
  • 01/30/20 – W.H.O declared global health emergency
  • 01/31/20 – Trump restricts travel from China.  213 had died, 9,800 infected.  Russia, Sweden, UK confirm cases

FEBRUARY, 2020

  • 02/02/20 – first reported death outside of China reported in Thailand.  360 had died
  • 02/05/20 – Diamond Princess cruise ship with 3,600 passengers in Japan quarantined
  • 02/07/20 – Hong Kong introduces prison sentences for anyone breaching quarantine rules
  • 02/10/20 – 908 died, 40,171 infected.  Surpasses SARS death toll
  • 02/14/20 – France first death in Paris.  W.H.O names the virus “COVID-19”,  1,016 had died
  • 02/17/20 – China bans eating wildlife, the likely source of the outbreak
  • 02/18/20 – China daily infection figure drops below 2,000 for the first time since January.  72,436 infected worldwide
  • 02/21/20 – Virus appears in Iran and 2 die that day.  76,000 infected
  • 02/22/20 – S. Korea sees largest single day spike with 229 new cases
  • 02/23/20 – Italy sees major surge and officials lock down towns
  • 02/24/20 – Trump asks for $1.25 billion to prepare the U.S.  35 infected in the U.S.
  • 02/27/20 – MONTAG posts blog “CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ON THEE MARKETS” by Brendan Wagner
  • 02/28/20 – Italy, 800 infected.  Africa sees first case
  • 02/29/20 – U.S. first death. 87,000 infected worldwide.  S. Korea sees highest daily number reported of 813 infected

MARCH, 2020

  • 03/03/20 – CDC lifts all federal restrictions on testing for the virus
  • 03/03/20 – Fed cuts rates by .50% to 1.25%
  • 03/03/20 – MONTAG makes second blog post, “CORONAVIRUS IN PLAIN ENGLISH” by Tom Frisbie, CFA
  • 03/08/20 – Italy imposes strict quarantine affecting 16 million people
  • 03/09/20 (Monday) – Iran releases 70,000 prisoners due to virus without specifying expectations for return
  • 03/09/20 – Energy and Financials sectors gap down 20% and 15% on Saudi’s raising oil production and interest rates plunging
  • 03/09/20 – Stock market halted shortly after the open on 7% fall, first time circuit breakers used since 1997  Ends down 7.6%
  • 03/10/20 (Tuesday) – MONTAG cancels the Spring edition of its semi-annual “Facts and Finances for Women”
  • 03/11/20 (Wednesday) 10y Treasury bonds touch .39% intraday
  • 03/11/20 – WHO labeled the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic – “Pandemics are epidemics that happen in multiple regions”
  • 03/11/20 – Trump oval office speech restricts travel to US from Europe for 30 days
  • 03/11/20 – NBA suspends season, NCAA tournament to be played without fans
  • 03/12/20 (Thursday) – NCAA reverses itself, tournament cancelled
  • 03/12/20 – Trump oval office speech offers to reduce payroll taxes, assist HC providers, sick leave, testing, etc.
  • 03/12/20 – NBA suspends season, MLB suspends, NHL suspends
  • 03/12/20 – Stock market futures limit down on the open, market down 9.5% by end of the day
  • 03/12/20 – 118 countries, 4,600 deaths, 126,100 cases
  • 03/12/20 – Congress’s physician tells Senate he expects 70 to 150 million people to eventually be infected in the U.S.
  • 03/12/20 – India/Egypt report virus cases
  • 03/12/20 – Norwegian Air lays off half its staff.  China closes Mount Everest climbing routes
  • 03/12/20 – Brazilian who met Trump tests positive for COVID-19
  • 03/12/20 – Iran cases spiking to 1,075 in past 24 hours.  Asks IMF for emergency $5bn
  • 03/12/20 – Spain locking down Madrid
  • 03/12/20 – China adviser expects global pandemic to be over by June
  • 03/12/20 – California bans mass gatherings of 250 people or more
  • 03/12/20 – Tokyo chief said cancelling the Olympic Games was ‘impossible’
  • 03/12/20 – Australia announces $11 billion stimulus plan
  • 03/12/20 – China’s vehicle sales plunged 79.1% yr/yr in February
  • 03/12/20 – reportedly said that its resumption of production in China is going better than expected
  • 03/12/20 – Crude $31.57/bbl
  • 03/12/20 – SBA to Provide Disaster Assistance Loans for Small Businesses Impacted by Coronavirus
  • 03/12/20 – Amazon tells all employees to stay home around the world
  • 03/13/20 (Friday) – American Air cuts international capacity by 34%, Delta Air Lines cuts capacity by 40% next few months
  • 03/13/20 – MONTAG introduces “CRISIS TRACKER” Resource to its website, updated daily.  Traffic spikes 2,800%
  • 03/13/20 – UBS retail clients had net outflows of over $1.1b, surpassing previous record of $735m on 2/20/14 by 58%
  • 03/13/20 – Volumes y’day 50% greater than any day since the selloff began and 3x historical averages
  • 03/13/20 – Expedia cuts 2Q room growth to -45%
  • 03/13/20 – Disney and Universal both close theme parks
  • 03/13/20 – Italia’s Telecom sees 70% surge higher in internet usage as people are staying home
  • 03/13/20 – Federal Reserve conducts another emergency liquidity operation buying treasuries as needed to alleviate stress
  • 03/13/20 – Trump speech again, declares ‘national emergency’ and pushes out $50b to the states to use as needed
  • 03/13/20 – Stock market ends up 9.5% and the 10 year U.S.T.N. end at .95%
  • 03/13/20 – Trump waives student loan interest until further notice.
  • 03/15/20 (Sunday) – 60 deaths in the U.S. with 3,000 confirmed cases
  • 03/15/20 – Grocery stores raided by hoarders over the weekend as concerns for supply chain viability and restaurants mount
  • 03/15/20 – Amazon says they are out of many ‘staples goods’ and working 24-7 to replenish supplies
  • 03/15/20 – Apple, Nike, 100’s of others close or make new hours to deal with virus and risks to employees
  • 03/15/20 – Airlines slashing flights, Cruises suspended 30 days, Ski resorts closing, Disney closing, Movie theaters down 40%
  • 03/15/20 – Restaurants week of 3/13 down 20%
  • 03/15/20 – Google to launch a Corona website to direct eligible candidates to testing sites
  • 03/15/20 – FED makes largest moves the bank had ever taken, mirroring efforts of 2008, but all in a single day
  • 03/15/20 – FED cuts rates to 0%, launches $700 Quantitative easing program to purchase Treasury’s($500b) and MBS($200b)
  • 03/15/20 – FED slashed discount rate from 1.25% to .25%, lengthens loans to banks to 90 days so banks can tap this liquidity
  • 03/15/20 – FED cuts bank reserve requirements to 0
  • 03/15/20 – Central Banks of Canada, England, Japan, EU, and Swiss Nat’l bank took aggressive action to enhance liquidity
  • 03/15/20 – New York joins many other states in closing schools.  CA and OH close all bars and restaurants
  • 03/15/20 – Stock futures plummet after FED announces rate cuts and consumers witness ‘hoarding’ of staples over the weekend
  • 03/15/20 – Apple to OPEN stores in China.  Airlines ADDING flights in China.  Air quality beginning to decline again as they OPEN
  • 03/16/20 (Monday) -MONTAG institutes work-from-home (WFH) policy, begins successful daily virtual meetings per long-held disaster recovery policy (DRP).   MONTAG office in Georgia-Pacific Center remains open and staffed daily
  • 03/16/20 – Market halted down on open, ends down over 12%, worst day since 1987 crash.  Oil drops 10%
  • 03/16/20 – VIX, the volatility index hits all time high of 82.7.   High Yield bond spreads widen to 830 bps over the treasury
  • 03/17/20 (Tuesday) – China industrial activity moved from 70% up to 85% of ‘normal levels’ as healing continues
  • 03/17/20 – FED fixes Commercial Paper liquidity with additional $500b.  CPFF activated once Treasury signs off on it
  • 03/17/20 – China – Overall consumption (ex-autos and travel), is largely normalized to 80-90%
  • 03/17/20 – China – Large ticket items like autos and home sales, are also improving, but still at 40-60%
  • 03/17/20 – Boeing credit downgraded by S&P to BBB. Boeing asks White House and congress for aid for itself & suppliers
  • 03/17/20 – Amazon announces hiring plans of 100,000 positions
  • 03/17/20 – Amazon suspends all shipments other than medical supplies & staples to manage inventories thru 4/5
  • 03/17/20 – Delta Air and American Air in discussions to raise billions of dollars of debt
  • 03/17/20 – GM and Ford offering 0% financing for 7 years on new autos
  • 03/17/20 – Banks suspend share buyback plans indefinitely
  • 03/17/20 – Regal Cinemas closed as of today until further notice
  • 03/17/20 – S&P 500 index Dividend Yield is 2.75% vs. the 10y Treasury of .82%
  • 03/17/20 – Rumors of $800b fiscal stimulus package coming within 2 weeks
  • 03/17/20 – Trump is mulling allowing homeowners to delay mortgage payments for those impacted
  • 03/17/20 – 10 year treasury holding near 1% despite stock market weakness. SPX at 2500.  VIX at 75
  • 03/18/20 (Wednesday) – Markets halted down again on the open as circuit breakers kick-in
  • 03/18/20 – Boeing asks for $60b in assistance from the government
  • 03/18/20 – CNBC:  Mo El-Erian says chance of depression, Hosts:  Munchin had opened ‘possibility’ of 20% unemployment
  • 03/18/20 – New vaccine trials begin in Washington
  • 03/18/20 – Hedge Fund Mgr Bill Ackman in an emotional rage on CNBC recommends closing economy for a month
  • 03/18/20 – Bill Miller on CNBC in the same hour:  “There have been only 4 major buying opportunities in my life. Today is #5”
  • 03/18/20 – Stocks finish down 6% but well off their lows and after circuit breaker shut down midday – 10y USTN ends @ 1.27%
  • FLASH: 03/18/20: University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes. He said one of the medications, given to some of the first people to test positive for COVID-19 in Australia, had already resulted in “disappearance of the virus” and complete recovery from the infection
  • 03/19/20 (Thursday) – The FED announced late Wednesday night plan to safeguard $3.8 trillion held in money-market funds
  • 03/19/20 – FED will do 500B overnight REPO, large companies cannot lose access to the CP market, and will not
  • 03/19/20 – Ray Dalio, of Bridgewater, estimates losses at U.S. Corporations to be $4 trillion and $12 trillion globally due to virus
  • 03/19/20 – White House discusses 2 drugs, Chloroquine – already used for malaria, being tested and ramping production
  • 03/19/20 – WH also mentioned Remdesivir, made by Gilead, experimental antiviral in clinical trials now, results in April
  • 03/19/20 – Senate working on passing $1.2T fiscal stimulus package
  • 03/19/20 – Honda, Ford and General Motors all announced that they were suspending operations
  • 03/19/20 – National Asso. of Manufacturers calls on congress for $1.4 trillion to provide loans to impacted manufacturers
  • 03/19/20 – U.S. Travel Association updated predictions… estimates 4.6 million jobs could disappear before May
  • 03/19/20 – Schumer (D-NY) called for a plan to spend $400 million to boost capacity in hospitals, buy supplies
  • 03/19/20 – Larry Kudlow says the Trump admin may ask for an equity stake in companies that want coronavirus support
  • 03/20/20 (Friday) – Jeff Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital ($148b), covers last 3 shorts yesterday, net long first time in many years
  • 03/20/20 – Simon Property closes all its malls.  Domino’s hires 10k workers to meet demand.  Carnival offers boats as hospitals
  • 03/20/20 – CA governor orders all residents to stay at home except for “essential” needs
  • 03/20/20 – Existing Home Prices reported as up a very strong 8% in February yoy, economy WAS humming prior to crisis
  • 03/20/20 – FED purchased $307b in securities this week, far greater than the old record of $162b in one week in ’08
  • 03/20/20 – Goldman expecting unemployment claims to surge to 2.25m next week severely taxing states to deal with claims
  • 03/20/20 – Huntington Bank CEO Steve Steinour mentions banks are 2x better capitalized than in 2008, stand ready to assist
  • 03/20/20 – New York Governor closes NY state today
  • 03/20/20 – Heinz CEO: “In China, factories are open, logistics are running and there’s much optimism throughout the company”
  • 03/20/20 – White House plans Paid sick leave at no cost to employers
  • 03/20/20 – 3M has doubled its global output of N95 respirators to an annual rate of over 1.1 billion per year
  • 03/20/20 – The actions of the Fed and the fiscal stimulus plan are equal to more than 5% of GDP
  • 03/20/20 – Illinois joins California and New York in various stages of lockdown amid outbreak
  • 03/20/20 – Pennsylvania orders all businesses that aren’t life sustaining to close
  • 03/20/20 – 274,092 infected globally.  11,352 total deaths.  U.S.: 18,769 cases, 235 deaths, 4,980 new cases today
  • 03/22/20 (Weekend) – Bullard, St. Louis FED, predicted US unemployment may hit 30% in q2 and GDP could drop 50%
  • 03/22/20 – New York becoming the epicenter of the virus in the US with infections climbing to over 15,000, 10x WA and CA
  • 03/22/20 – Barron’s headline “Market Experts Say the Coronavirus Selloff Is ‘Worse Than Anything We’ve Seen Since 1929”
  • 03/22/20 – Senate Dems blocked $2 trillion rescue package. McConnell ripped Pelosi, cited plummeting stock futures
  • 03/22/20 – Goldman Sachs upgrades Boeing shares to Buy.  BA suspends dividends.  RJ upgrades American Airlines
  • 03/22/20 – Trump activates National Guard in VA, NY and WA and has to say “it’s not martial law” to be clear
  • 03/22/20 – Chloroquine continues to be watched positively, discussed daily at the WH briefing and other news outlets
  • 03/23/20 (Monday) – Fed to exercise open ended treasury MBS buying as needed to solve liquidity crisis
  • 03/23/20 – Numerous other states “close”, cut gatherings, and institute curfews.  India orders lockdown
  • 03/23/20 – NY Governor Cuomo says the state will begin using trial drugs to treat infected patients
  • 03/23/20 – Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner on CNBC says China will be at full capacity by end of the week; sales remain strong
  • 03/23/20 – GM, F, TSLA will begin production of ventilators
  • 03/23/20 – High Yield bond spreads versus Treasuries reach 10% as risk of defaults grow
  • 03/23/20 – The VIX volatility index (indicates uncertainty/risk) settles down to below 70 after 5 days above 80
  • 03/23/20 – Same Store Sales at restaurants down 70-80% last week, as some shift to delivery and pickup to survive
  • 03/23/20 – Discussions around “is the shut-down doing more harm than benefit” abound
  • 03/23/20 – International Olympic Committee member say 2020 Olympics likely will be postponed
  • 03/23/20 – Trump “we are distributing 10,000 units of Chloroquine to NY right now, increasing supplies of the drug right now”
  • 03/23/20 – Trump very excited about results he’s seen from use of Chloroquine.  Says it could be a real Game-Changer
  • 03/23/20 – Fox: “Since Thursday, my team has treated appr. 350 patients…with 0 deaths, 0 hospitalizations, 0 intubations”
  • 03/23/20 – FED said it would buy exchange-traded funds that track the corporate bond market, a first for the U.S. central bank
  • 03/23/20 – Trump tweet “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself”  “not months, this is going away”
  • 03/24/20 (Tuesday) – Chevron reduces capital spending plans by $4b/20%, suspended buybacks.  Energy stocks found low?
  • 03/24/20 – $2t fiscal plan still stalled in the house but thought to be announced later today.  Stocks up 1,800 pts intraday
  • 03/24/20 – 13 states so far have orders to stay at home.  3 states have instructions from their governors to remain at home
  • 03/24/20 – CEO Kevin Johnson of Starbucks, “the U.S. is a few weeks behind China but the recovery is tracking the same”
  • 03/24/20 – India’s Prime Minister orders a total lockdown of the country’s 1.3 billion people for 21 days
  • 03/24/20 – Infected cases soaring in NY to 25,665, Cuomo estimates 140,000 beds needed in apex 14 to 21 days out
  • 03/24/20 – Trump plans to use the Defense Production Act to procure 60,000 test kit and 500 million masks
  • 03/24/20 – Italy cases hits 64,000 with 6,000 deaths but testing is limited and some estimate as many as 640,000 infected
  • 03/24/20 – Gilead Sciences experimental drug Remdesivir, received the orphan drug designation on Monday from the FDA
  • 03/24/20 – Remdesivir currently in clinical trials, is expected to have results as early as next month
  • 03/24/20 – Wuhan, 2 mths after Chinese locked down the city on 1/23, now expects travel restrictions to be removed 4/8
  • 03/24/20 – Stock market up 11%, best day since 1933.  Fiscal package negotiations move to Wednesday
  • 03/25/20 (Wednesday) – Boeing to restart production of the 737 Max by May.  BA to benefit from stimulus bill, BA up 24%
  • 03/25/20 – Nike, with worldwide operations and insights, says China, Japan and Korea are improving
  • 03/25/20 – Congress and White House reach agreement on a $2 trillion stimulus package and is finalizing details today
  • 03/25/20 – Stimulus package includes an additional $4 trillion in loans for distressed businesses
  • 03/25/20 – First back to back rally in the Dow since early February.  64,000 infected it the U.S. with 910 deaths to date
  • 03/25/20 – NY reports the rate of doubling needs for hospital beds is slowing daily, deaths down day/day, inspiring much hope
  • 03/25/20 – Multiple interviews on Fox News with doctors prescribing Hydroxychloroquine, all having very good results to date
  • 03/26/20 (Thursday) – Initial Jobless claims soar to 3.3 million
  • 03/26/20 – MONTAG posts blog “BEND BUT DON’T BREAK: WHY SUPPLY CHAINS MATTER” by Steve Whittington, CFA
  • 03/26/20 – FED’s Powell “when it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition, that doesn’t happen
  • 03/26/20 – Trump talking about ‘opening the country up” based on data using criteria to classify counties risk levels
  • 03/26/20 – 82,400 infected in the U.S. with 1,100 deaths.  A slowing rate of deaths.  Dow rallies 1,300 points
  • 03/27/20 (Friday) – WSJ reports FedEx says 2/3 of small businesses in China back to work, 90%+ of large manufacturers
  • 03/27/20 – Subway ridership in China’s major cities still down by half
  • 03/27/20 – G-20 pledges an injection of over $5 trillion into the global economy; says it’s committed to do whatever it takes
  • 03/27/20 – Federal Reserve’s balance sheet exceeds $5 trillion for first time ever
  • 03/27/20 – Dow drops 915 points or 4% to 21,600, down 24% YTD.  10 year USTN settle down to .68%, 3  mo at .003%
  • 03/27/20 – The Dow rallies on the week 12.8% to finish with the largest gain since 1938
  • 03/28/20 (Weekend) – Bill Gates: 6-10 weeks of “extreme shutdown, sooner it’s done in a tough way, sooner can undo it”
  • 03/28/20 – Casual dining restaurants thought to be experiencing 70-90% sales declines with QSR Chains down 30-40%
  • 03/29/20 – Trump invokes Defense Protection Act(DPA) require companies to prioritize Government, reallocate materials/work
  • 03/29/20 – White House extends federal social distance guidelines through April 30
  • 03/30/20 (Monday) – JP Morgan says the Market rout is probably past its worst now
  • 03/30/20 – Abbott Labs(ABT) announces FDA approved 5 minute virus test.  To supply 50,000 tests/day starting 4/1
  • 03/30/20 – Johnson & Johnson announces lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate, could be tested in clinical trials by September
  • 03/30/20 – Dr. Fauci reduces U.S. death estimates to 100-200k, down from 1-2 million weeks ago.  U.S. deaths: 2,490
  • 03/30/20 – Japan reschedules opening of Tokyo Olympics for July 23, 2021 per the IOC
  • 03/30/20 – Antibody testing on 8,000 CO residents begins to determine if a person who had Covid-19 can get it again
  • 03/30/20 – Up to 10% of recovered coronavirus patients test positive again after discharge, report says from Wuhan, China
  • 03/30/20 – World and U.S. new infection cases and new deaths have decelerated for 3 days
  • 03/31/20 (Tuesday) – Congress preparing fourth stimulus package that could be valued at $600 billion
  • 03/31/20 – Research surfaces that TB Vaccine could be a valuable weapon in COVID-19 fight
  • 03/31/20 – Goldman Sachs now predicting -34% GDP in Q2 with 15% unemployment, rebound in Q3 GDP of +19%
  • 03/31/20 – President Trump: $2 trillion infrastructure bill should be included in the 4th part of a stimulus bill with rates near zero
  • 03/31/20 – Novartis generics division Sandoz to donate 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine(HCQ) for clinical trials
  • 04/01/20 (Wednesday) – U.S. intelligence concluded that China was in fact underreporting cases and deaths in the country
  • 04/01/20 – Reuters reports a Chinese county in the Henan province was put on lockdown following several new cases
  • 04/02/20 (Thursday) – President Trump is considering stopping flights from going to and from certain coronovirus “hot spots”